Political Leaders Discuss Possible November Election Outcomes

The BCW held its quadrennial Road to the White House event on Wednesday at Pace University in White Plains with presentations from political leaders and pundits on how the national election will determine the nation’s balance of power.

The invited speakers gave in-depth analysis of the presidential candidate’s prospects, how their policies may impact business and potential implications for the economy. The speakers included former New York Governor David Paterson; Jay Jacobs, chairman of the New York State Democratic Committee; Ed Cox, chairman of the New York State Republican Committee; Ashlee Rich-Stephenson, a senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; Bradley Honan, CEO and president of the Honan Strategy Group; and Dr. Laura Tamman, clinical assistant professor of political science at Pace University.

After each speaker, attendees asked pertinent questions about the upcoming election. Moderator and BCW executive vice-president and COO John Ravitz began the event by noting that the BCW does not endorse political candidates.

“We work with elected officials on both sides of the aisle, and we pride ourselves on having developed a strong line of communication with those elected officials to ensure that we are the eyes, ears—and in many cases—the voice of our members,” said Ravitz.

Gov. Paterson warned about the challenges faced by New York’s economy, which he noted has a lower growth rate than surrounding states. He said that spending on healthcare and social services saps the vitality of the state’s other business sectors.

“What this means is that the government is going to have to take the same approach that business takes when you have that kind of problem,” said Gov. Paterson of the need to reduce public spending. “I am not comfortable feeling that the legislature can give that cooperation to the governor…. it’s going to be a difficult situation if that cooperation isn’t there because this is what has led to catastrophic results for state and even federal governments when they fail to address a problem.”

Stephenson gave a detailed analysis of polling for the closest presidential election in modern history, particularly in the seven battleground states whose outcomes will determine the presidential and senate races. She noted that Vice-President Kamala Harris has increasingly failed to separate herself from the economic policies of President Joe Biden’s administration.

“The Trump campaign and every single Republican running for office—it doesn’t matter if it’s in New York State to most conservative stretches of this country—needs to be talking about the fact that Americans do not think last three years have been good for them or their families and they’re extremely pessimistic about the direction of this country,” said Stephenson.

Jacobs discussed his concept of voter amnesia and inversion that he said has taken hold of the country, and he used statistics to argue that the U.S. economy performs better under Democratic than Republican administrations.

“Donald Trump is a master of distraction, and he is a master salesman,” said Jacobs of Trump’s economic claims. “Since World War II, 10 of the last 11 recessions have started under Republican presidents.”

Cox predicted that Harris would lose the race because of historically high inflation only surpassed by the inflation rates of the late 1970s.

“You will recall that (President Jimmy) Carter was plagued by high inflation and high interest rates. This so-called, too-conservative (Ronald) Reagan was out there. He was behind in the polls…despite what the media said, he got 44 states, including New York, in a landslide,” said Cox.

Honan used a photograph of CitiField to demonstrate that about 41,000 people—the stadium’s capacity—will decide the national election. He noted that President Joe Biden only won the national election by a few thousand votes in the seven battleground states that will decide the November election.

“What is unique and different about this election from a mathematical standpoint, is that it’s the first time in 60 years that we have not had a single candidate who’s been ahead by five points for at least three weeks in the public polling,” said Honan.

Tamman ended the event by discussing threats to democracy like income inequality, political polarization, insurrections, and questions of who belongs. She proposed a counterbalance.

“Just as there are things that threaten democracy, there are things that support democracy, and one of those is high amounts of social capital,” said Tamman. “How do we get more social capital? Civic organizations like the Business Council of Westchester convening people from both parties to come together and talk, argue, and hear multiple perspectives. What you’re doing today is incredibly valuable to American democracy.”