Impact of Rising Housing Costs on HV Economy Focus of New Reports

The impact of the housing market on the Hudson Valley’s economy is the focus of two new reports issued this week by Hudon Valley Patterns for Progress. The reports focus on the cost of housing and residents moving out of the area. Patterns for Progress President & CEO Adam Bosch gave a detailed overview of the report to the BCW’s Board of Directors at its May 15^th Board meeting.

The “Moving In, Moving Out” report shows the Hudson Valley lost more people to domestic migration than it gained in 2021, a transition year that included the first rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the end of many mask mandates, and a record number of home sales throughout the Hudson Valley region.

“The region lost a net of 12,257 people who moved to other counties and states in 2021. It was the region’s biggest loss since 2005, a year that saw thousands move from the Hudson Valley to New York City as part of a post-9/11 return to the metropolitan area,” according to the report. “The loss of 12,257 people might not be felt in a region of more than 2 million, but the cumulative losses are becoming more statistically significant for the Hudson Valley. From 1996-2021, the region lost a net of 146,763 people to outward migration, a number that represents about 5% of our total population.”

Pattern for Progress said major demographic factors putting stress on workforce availability in the Hudson Valley include outward migration, declining birth rates, and a wave of retirements among the baby boomer generation. According to the report, outward migration affecting the Hudson Valley reflects a broader trend in New York State which lost a net of 224,781 people to migration in 2021.

The report on rising housing costs titled “Out of Reach 2024” said hourly wages generally aren’t enough to pay current rents. The report found that although the average hourly wage of renters throughout the Hudson Valley has increased in every county since 2019, from 2023 to 2024 it dropped in seven counties — Columbia; Dutchess; Orange; Putnam; Rockland; Sullivan; and Westchester.

“Generally, the modest increase in hourly wages for renters since 2019 has barely kept pace with inflation,” the report said. “The rising cost of rent has far outpaced gains in hourly wages in the Hudson Valley over the past six years. As a consequence, even in counties with modest wage increases, renters throughout the region are paying a greater proportion of their total income toward housing costs.”

In conclusion, the report noted that home ownership was out of reach for many Hudson Valley residents and that people already owning single-family homes are building wealth that cannot be achieved by others who have been locked out of ownership.